Session Goal Basis Analysis

Maggie's Organics — March 2026 Contract Review

Prepared March 6, 2026

Data latest as of March 5, 2026. March figures are partial (4–5 days).

Monthly Session Comparison

With Bots
Without Bots
Side by Side

Visual Comparison

February 2025 Deep Dive: The 3 Bot Days

Anomalous Days

DateSessionsNew User %Bounce Rate
Feb 43,74089.5%14.6%
Feb 74,92092.2%13.4%
Feb 85,13793.1%14.9%
Total Bot13,797

Normal Day Baseline (25 days avg)

MetricValue
Avg Sessions/Day1,892
New User %69.3%
Bounce Rate35.5%
Days in Sample25

Bot days show 2–2.7x normal session volume with >89% new users (vs 69% normal) and <15% bounce rate (vs 36% normal) — consistent with automated crawlers, not human visitors.

Rebased Targets — What Goals Should Be

10.9%

Recommendation for Contract Discussion

Methodology, Data Sources & Limitations

Bot Detection Criteria: Days where (new_users / sessions > 0.85) AND (bounce_rate < 0.20) are flagged as bot-inflated. This identifies automated traffic that navigates multiple pages (low bounce) but generates no returning visitors (high new-user ratio). The same criteria are used in the live analytics dashboard.

Session Data Source: maggies-analytics.staging.ga4_daily_metrics — daily GA4 session data exported natively to BigQuery.

Revenue Data Source: marts.daily_summary (BigCommerce DTC orders). Nov/Dec 2025 capped at ~$200K to exclude wholesale/Black Friday bulk. Raw Nov = $1.2M, raw Dec = $311K.

2026 Forecast Source: forecast_2026.csv — the targets currently used for contract evaluation (sessions and revenue).

2026 Actuals: Full-month data for January and February. March is partial (revenue: 5 days, sessions: 4 days as of March 5).

Clean Sessions: Total sessions minus bot sessions for each month. Only February 2025 had detectable bot activity; all other months' clean and raw totals are identical.

Limitations:

  • Bot detection is heuristic-based. Some bot traffic may not match these criteria, and some edge-case legitimate traffic spikes could theoretically be misclassified (though the Feb 2025 pattern is unambiguous).
  • Only February 2025 triggers the bot detection filter. If other months had subtler bot inflation, their "clean" numbers may still be slightly overstated.
  • Growth rate projections assume steady YoY improvement; actual performance will vary by seasonality and campaign activity.
  • Revenue figures exclude wholesale and marketplace channels. Nov/Dec 2025 are DTC estimates (~$200K each) due to Black Friday and wholesale volume in the raw data.